Image Credit: Sony Pictures
A few months ago, we used special data Greenlight Analytics‘Tracking data for Netflix’s 2026 movie slate to see what the most anticipated upcoming releases of 2026 are, while also looking at what might perform well in theaters and what movies people have heard about. Spoiler alert: The final winner was there are floods hereBut another title that stood out as a particular point of curiosity for hardcore movie fans: adventures of cliff booth.
Quentin Tarantino’s highly anticipated (and now officially approved film – thanks to the Super Bowl) spin-off Once Upon a Time in HollywoodThe film, directed by David Fincher and starring Brad Pitt, is already making waves online and is reportedly getting a theatrical release in August, too. But does the general public care? And more importantly, does this cinematic pedigree mean that audiences will want to see it on the big screen?
we reached Brandon KatzDirector of Insights and Content Strategy at Greenlight Analytics to help us uncover the latest data behind a promotion, if it exists.
Decline in awareness: nothing to worry about (yet)
If you look at the raw data, for overall awareness adventures of cliff booth Actually reduced from 15% in December 2025 to 13% in March 2026. But before anyone sounds the alarm over Fincher’s latest, Katz notes that it’s par for the course.
Katz explains, “It’s not unusual to see fluctuations in awareness scores for films with minimal marketing months after release.” “This is especially true for streaming exclusive movies, and doubly true for titles that don’t even have an official release date yet.”
He also had a fun industry tidbit: “The Ugly Secret of the Super Bowl [citing previously released metrics] The thing about movie trailers is that they rarely lead to any sustained growth. There is no reason to worry right now.”
For our part, we should say that Netflix hasn’t actually got that trailer anywhere to watch, and those who have uploaded it (see below) have a very poor quality teaser. We heard that they are planning a big explosion soon.
The “in-the-know” crowd is ready
While general awareness may only be hovering at 13%, the conversion rate among those to do Know what is amazing about the film. 71% of people who know about the project are interested in seeing it.
Katz tells us that a 71% “Interest Among Aware” (IAA) score is a very healthy spot. “This compares well to other recent Netflix originals in the week of release, such as frankenstein (70%), incision (72%), and jay kelly (72%), but behind Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story (80%).”
However, he cautions that high interest among a small group does not automatically equate to a massive hit. “Its reach isn’t wide enough yet. What remains to be seen is whether it can maintain an IAA score of over 70 while pushing its awareness above the 25%-35% range where many Netflix originals come from,” says Katz, noting that the floor for wide-release theatrical films is typically around 40%.
The intent of the premium charge: Young men are leading the way
When it comes to willingness to pay premium fees (like theater tickets or VOD rentals), men under 35 are leading the demand. They sit at 45% premium charge intention, which is 13 points higher than women under 35 (32%).
Is this the Fincher/Tarantino effect? Absolutely.
“There is no doubt that Quentin Tarantino’s trifecta Once Upon a Time in HollywoodDavid Fincher and Brad Pitt are setting up adventures of cliff booth To resonate with the expected male audience,” Katz confirms. But it’s also about broader spending habits. Greenlight’s data consistently shows that men under 35 are the most passionate film fans in America and the most likely to spend money on film in any format.
Katz says, “Continuing this contemporary cult classic with another beloved filmmaker on the default streamer is practically nonsense for this demo (and I count myself among them!).”
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The big question: Should Netflix put it in theaters?
Netflix has historically shied away from wide theatrical releases, but with men indicating 29% theatrical intent compared to 24% for women, questions have to be asked. Could a theatrical performance work?
“Looking at Cost reported above for alone adventures of cliff boothIt may be worth a theatrical release to attempt the monetary ROI,” says Katz. However, he admits it’s a chicken-and-egg scenario. Right now, overall theatrical intent sits at a modest 26%, which doesn’t scream immediate box office demand – but that’s likely due to a lack of marketing.
Here’s how Katz breaks down the arguments for and against running theaters based on data:
- Case of Dramatization: dramatic intent among the aware Currently it is 57%. “More than half of the people who know about this film say they would be interested in seeing it in theaters,” says Katz. If Netflix can maintain that specific conversion rate while boosting overall awareness, it would be a great sign of true theatrical value.
- The case against dramatization: Viewers still love their living room. The “home-free” crowd (those who want to watch it at home on Netflix at no extra charge) sits at 30%, which is three times the “home-pay” crowd of 10%. Furthermore, total home viewing preference (40%) still handily outweighs total theatrical preference (26%).
Ultimately, a theatrical release will require a traditional, expensive marketing effort to raise the bar in all of these metrics. For now, we’ll have to wait and see if Netflix decides to treat cliff booth As a more traditional theatrical, something akin to its modest push for awards-fare, or something new and stunted, as we’re seeing stranger things, a piece, kpop demon hunter, Or narnia This thanks.
Will you be going and see the new Cliff Booth movie in theaters, or would you prefer to watch it at home?